Andrew L. Urban
North Korean troops sent to fight alongside Russians in its invasion of Ukraine has been met with what looks like equanimity in the Anglosphere. There have been no squeals about ‘escalation’. Kim Jong-Un is arm in arm (or should that read arms in arms) with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine’s battlefield, and we shrug?
Zelenskiy blasted what he called his allies’ “zero” response, saying that a weak reaction would encourage Russia to beef up the contingent. The Ukrainian leader, in an interview with South Korea’s KBS television channel, said he believed Moscow was already trying to agree for North Korea to send engineering troops and a “large number of civilians” to work at Russian military plants.
That ‘escalation’ thinking is exemplified by Max Hastings writing in The Sunday Times: “It was never plausible to empower the Ukrainians to escalate without limit against a nuclear-armed Russia led by a man such as Putin.”
The fear of escalation leading to Putin lobbing a nuke at a) Kiev or b) the newcomer to the battle is the core of that problem. Not only does it misread Putin’s bluff (he is not insane), it reinforces its potency. It is a declaration of fear, weakness and lack of resolve. Sun Tzu is turning in his grave: “Security against defeat implies defensive tactics; ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive.”
Hastings was writing (as are many others) in the wake of the Trump victory, in the expectation that Trump will negotiate for peace between the Russians and the Ukrainians. Trump has set himself a high bar, claiming he will have that war end within a day – and probably even before he is sworn in. Obviously, it has generated scoffing and guffaws from those who cannot conceive such a possibility.
Two things: one, Trump’s deal making is comprised of strategic gambit plays, and two, whether it takes him a single day or a month, underestimating Trump has always backfired.
But back to North Korean boots on the ground – some 10,000 of them, according to reports. It hasn’t stirred the world despite the very clear illegitimacy of Russia’s invasion in which North Korea is now complicit. Imagine if Poland (or another NATO country) did likewise, sending 10,000 troops to Ukraine’s assistance.
The point here is that the fear of escalation has been a useful shield behind which Ukraine’s supporters, principally the Biden administration, has hidden its weak-willed, timid and foolish slow-walked response. It has strived to protect Ukraine from defeat while ensuring it cannot achieve victory. And don’t quote me the money; US largesse was largely spent in the US to replace equipment sent to Kiev, some of which had cobwebs on it.
In my book, the idea articulated by Hastings in his piece is nothing short of trying to excuse appeasement. Timidity, lack of resolve …appeasement…it’s never a winning strategy as it reveals weakness, which invites escalation – in aggression.
North Korea will no doubt increase its troop deployment to Russia’s war, perhaps without alerting the world. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is making frantic calls to friendly world leaders asking for more weapons and less restrictions in using them against the aggressor.
Inviting North Korea to join his war against Ukraine, Putin has opened the door to Zelensky inviting his closest allies to do the same. And Trump may well use it as leverage in his peacemaking talks….
Andrew L. Urban is the co-author of Zelensky the Unlikely Hero Who Defied Putin and Zelensky the Front Line President (Wilkinson Publishing).