Andrew L. Urban
History is a tough teacher. Learn and win or ignore and fail. Our track record as humans is rather poor. More failures than wins. And here comes the next big test: it’s set for August 15, 2025 in Alaska and the test is for US President Donald Trump. Trump will meet the Russian war criminal to negotiate if, when and how Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine should come to an end.
Good luck with that.
Seeking any agreement with Vladimir Putin faces the hurdle that he doesn’t abide by them if he doesn’t wish to. This is especially relevant and crucial when Ukraine wants a solid guarantee for its sovereign security as an essential part of any deal. Never mind what Putin agrees to; what will he stick to? If anything?
History from which to learn:
Putin’s tenure as Russia’s leader (President from 2000–2008 and 2012–present; Prime Minister from 2008–2012) is peppered with actions widely regarded as violations of international law, treaties, or agreements. These include breaches of territorial integrity, use of prohibited weapons, war crimes, and disregard for security assurances like the 1994 Budapest Memorandum (which committed Russia to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders in exchange for its denuclearization. The fact that the US and the UK also signed the memorandum but failed to abide by it to stop Putin’s invasion is an example of ‘ignore and fail’).
2006: Poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko
A former Russian FSB officer and Kremlin critic was poisoned with radioactive polonium-210 in London, UK. This act violated UK sovereignty and international norms against extraterritorial assassinations. A 2016 UK public inquiry concluded it was likely approved by Putin, and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled in 2021 that Russia was responsible, ordering compensation.
2007: Unilateral Suspension of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty
Russia ceased implementing the CFE Treaty, a key post-Cold War arms control agreement limiting conventional military forces in Europe. This was the only legally binding conventional arms limitation treaty in Europe at the time, and the suspension undermined regional security and transparency commitments.
2008: Invasion of Georgia (Russo-Georgian War)
Russian forces invaded Georgia, advancing into undisputed territory and occupying regions like Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This violated Georgia’s territorial integrity under the UN Charter, the Helsinki Final Act (1975), and the Charter of Paris (1990). Actions included ethnic cleansing of Georgians, indiscriminate attacks on civilians, and breach of the 12 August 2008 ceasefire agreement mediated by the EU. Russia later recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent, condemned by the UN, NATO, and OSCE. The ECHR ruled in 2021 that Russia committed grave human rights abuses and maintained illegal control over the regions.
2014: Annexation of Crimea
Russian troops seized and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula following a disputed referendum. This directly violated the Budapest Memorandum (1994), which assured Ukraine’s borders; the UN Charter’s prohibition on acquiring territory by force (Article 2(4)); and the 1997 Treaty on Friendship between Russia and Ukraine. The UN General Assembly condemned it as invalid (Resolution 68/262).
2014–Ongoing: Support for Separatists in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas)
Russia provided military support to pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, leading to an armed conflict. This breached the Budapest Memorandum and Minsk Agreements (2014–2015), which required ceasefires and withdrawal of foreign forces. A Dutch-led investigation found Russia supplied the Buk missile that downed Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 on 17 July 2014, killing 298 civilians—a violation of international aviation law (Chicago Convention) and constituting a war crime.
2015–Ongoing: Military Intervention in Syria
Russia launched airstrikes supporting the Assad regime, involving indiscriminate bombings of civilian areas, hospitals, and schools in opposition-held territories. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International documented war crimes, including use of prohibited cluster munitions (violating UN Resolution 2139, 2014) and incendiary weapons. The UN attributed thousands of civilian deaths to Russian forces, with tactics like “double-tap” strikes (bombing rescuers) and sieges breaching international humanitarian law (Geneva Conventions). By 2022, estimates ranged from 4,000–8,000 civilian deaths.
2016: Violations of Arms Control and Maritime Agreements
Russia breached the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (1987) by developing and testing prohibited ground-launched cruise missiles. It also restricted observation flights under the Open Skies Treaty (2002) and violated the 1972 Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents On and Over the High Seas (INCSEA) through dangerous manoeuvres near U.S. vessels and aircraft.
2018: Poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal
The former Russian spy and his daughter were poisoned with Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury, UK, killing one bystander. This violated the Chemical Weapons Convention (1993, to which Russia is a party) and UK sovereignty. The UK government attributed it to Russian military intelligence, leading to international sanctions and expulsions of diplomats.
2020: Poisoning of Alexei Navalny
Russian opposition leader Navalny was poisoned with Novichok during a domestic flight. Labs in Germany, France, and Sweden confirmed the agent, violating the Chemical Weapons Convention. The OPCW (Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons) condemned it, and investigations linked it to Russian FSB agents. Navalny died in prison in 2024 under suspicious circumstances.
2022–Ongoing: Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
Russia launched a massive invasion, occupying large swaths of Ukrainian territory and committing widespread atrocities. This violated the UN Charter (aggression), the Budapest Memorandum, and the Minsk Agreements. Documented war crimes include civilian massacres (e.g., Bucha), forced deportations of children, and indiscriminate shelling. The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in 2023 for unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children—a war crime under the Rome Statute.
Can Trump Make Agreements Stick Again?