Andrew L. Urban
Violated but not rescinded, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 was signed by the leaders of the US, UK, Russia and Ukraine. It promises the sort of security guarantees that Ukraine seeks and that are being contemplated now by these very parties. It’s still in place, so just do it. Invoke it now. Trump could.
Ironically enough, Budapest is being considered as the next venue for further peace negotiations. Budapest being my birthplace, I claim geographical relevance to offer the following observations.
(Brutally frank) Memo to the Signatory Nations of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum:
Subject: Keeping Your Word
The Memorandum was drawn up to reassure Ukraine that giving up its nuclear arsenal to Russia (!) would earn security guarantees from the parties. Key clauses:
- 1The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
- 2[The parties] reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
- 4[The parties] reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used. (Note Russia’s implied threat of such use…)
- 6[The parties} will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.
Budapest Memorandum … Signed – and ignored
To Russia:
As the violator of the Memorandum with your illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, you bear the greatest responsibility and deserve the world’s opprobrium. Clearly, your word in any agreement is worthless. The Memorandum is not legally binding, but when has Russia been bound by legalities? In 2016, for example, Russia breached the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (1987) by developing and testing prohibited ground-launched cruise missiles. It also restricted observation flights under the Open Skies Treaty (2002) and violated the 1972 Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents On and Over the High Seas (INCSEA) through dangerous manoeuvres near U.S. vessels and aircraft.
A Dutch-led investigation found Russia supplied the Buk missile that downed Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 on 17 July 2014, killing 298 civilians—a violation of international aviation law (Chicago Convention) and constituting a war crime.
Personal note to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: your insistence that any Western security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal would be “enacted” only with Moscow’s “co-operation” would effectively give Russia a power of veto over activation of the guarantees. That’s a lot of swagger for a party that doesn’t stick to international law or to your undertakings. The only nation who should have such a veto is Ukraine.
My late father returned from a meeting with Soviet leaders in the 80s and called them a bunch of thugs. Those were the receding glory days of the KGB … as your president knows well, misses greatly and hopes to resurrect.
To the US:
A well informed source has told me that the Biden administration (in power when Russia invaded Ukraine) was given very poor advice to not invoke the Budapest Memorandum. The geopolitical consequences of that fateful decision are playing out as appeasement always does, emboldening the aggressor.
To the UK:
If Boris Johnson’s UK government tried to urge the Biden administration to jointly and immediately invoke the Memorandum as they should have, we don’t know about it. See clause 4 above.
To Ukraine:
See my note to Lavrov above: insist on veto rights in any new security guarantees. It’s your sovereignty at stake. Learn from history.
And to Hungary:
Reports of the animosity between President Zelensky and Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban (eg the BBC in December 2023: “Mr Orban seems rather more at ease with Vladimir Putin than with Mr Zelensky, and is the Russian leader’s closest ally in the EU.”) make sour reading. Meanwhile, in August 2025, Hungary has offered to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine twice, and the offer still stands, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in a podcast broadcast on Facebook on Thursday (August 21, 2025). According to the Spykman Centre, “Several Hungarian civil organizations helped Ukrainian refugees, with the government making several videos about helping the refugees with Orbán in the main role despite the fact that the organisations hardly received state aid to help the Ukrainians. The Hungarian government behaved in a contradictory manner during the invasion and often expressed different views on certain proposals at home compared to abroad.
“Hungary is also the only country that has increased the amount of energy supply coming from Russia and the number of diplomatic staff in the Russian embassy. On top of that, the PM constantly calls for neutrality and peace while criticizing sanctions and refusing to be part of the military aid for Ukraine.”
Understandably enough, energy needs seem to be at least partly driving foreign policy, which in turn is making Hungary somewhat schizophrenic on Ukraine v Russia. Finding a way to supplant Russia as an energy supplier would make geopolitical sense …