Andrew L. Urban
Who would have thunk it? Certainly not a Trump supporter such as I ! The tough guy in the White House, Donald Trump, has been outplayed by Russian dictator Putin, and by the theocratic dictators of Iran, using the same playbook. I call that playbook the ‘nod with head, strike with fist’ manoeuvre.
Russian President Putin promised openness to peace while relentlessly attacking Ukraine. Throughout the Russia-Ukraine war (or ‘special military operation’ as Putin tried to spin it), Putin has repeatedly expressed willingness for negotiations or ceasefires, often through public statements or diplomatic channels, while Russian forces continued or escalated military operations. For example:
– Early 2022 Istanbul Talks Breakdown: In March-April 2022, during peace negotiations in Istanbul, Putin indicated readiness for a settlement, including neutrality for Ukraine. However, shortly after, he declared the talks at a “dead end” and vowed to pursue the war, with Russian forces withdrawing from areas around Kyiv only to reveal evidence of massacres in Bucha and intensify attacks in the Donbas. Attacks continued relentlessly, including annexation of four regions in September 2022, where Putin again invited Ukraine to negotiate while warning of using “all necessary means” to defend claimed territory.
– June 2024 Proposal Amid Ongoing Offensives: Putin proposed peace terms in June 2024, demanding Ukraine surrender annexed regions and demilitarize, framing it as an opening for talks. Yet, Russian forces maintained heavy bombardments and territorial advances, with no pause in hostilities, leading analysts to view it as a stalling tactic rather than genuine diplomacy.
– December 2025 Press Conference Signals: In a December 2025 press conference, Putin stated Russia was “ready for negotiations and to settle the conflict by peaceful means,” praising U.S. President Trump’s efforts and placing the onus on Ukraine and the West. This came amid continued front-line fighting and just before escalated winter attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
This prompted me at the time that only the barrel of a bigger gun will stop Putin, writing that “The accumulated evidence supports the calculation that Vladimir Putin is not ever going to stop his military aggression against Ukraine. Only military defeat will. And should.”
– During U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi starting in late 2025, Putin reportedly agreed to a temporary halt on strikes against Ukraine’s power grid, as conveyed to Trump, signalling openness to dialogue. However, within days, Russia launched massive drone and missile barrages, including a record 32 ballistic missiles and 183 drones, injuring civilians and damaging infrastructure, while demanding territorial concessions like full control of Donbas. Ukrainian President Zelensky noted the attacks resumed barely four days into the supposed pause, underscoring Russia’s lack of seriousness. Talks ended without resolution, with Putin maintaining high demands to prolong the conflict.
This pattern reveals a strategy where (pretended) diplomatic overtures buy time and/or shift blame, while military action persists to weaken Ukraine’s position.
As for Iran, instances of Iran appearing ready for diplomacy while brutally killing protesters show how Iran’s government has a history of signalling interest in international diplomacy, particularly on nuclear issues or regional relations, even as it deploys lethal force against domestic protesters. This duality often emerges during periods of internal unrest, with crackdowns suppressing dissent while outreach aims to ease external pressures. Key instances from recent and past events include:
– Following the death of Mahsa Amini in custody in September 2022, nationwide protests erupted, met with a brutal response that killed at least 537 protesters and detained over 19,200, according to activists. Amid this, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian engaged in indirect talks with the U.S. and signalled openness to regional normalization, framing external actors as the real threat while dismissing protests as foreign-instigated riots. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called the unrest a “hybrid war” by enemies abroad, even as diplomacy continued on nuclear matters.
– Protests ignited in late December 2025 over economic collapse and governance failures, spreading nationwide and drawing calls for regime change. The government imposed a near-total internet blackout and unleashed a crackdown killing between 4,200 and 36,000 protesters (estimates vary by source) and arresting tens of thousands, with reports of mass unlawful killings and bystander shootings. Concurrently, Iranian officials expressed openness to resuming nuclear talks with the U.S., with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff confirming contacts on nuclear, missile, and proxy issues—deliberately excluding the crackdown from core negotiations. President Masoud Pezeshkian accused foreign intelligence (e.g., Israel, U.S.) of fuelling unrest, while the regime pursued diplomatic off-ramps to mitigate sanctions and isolation. By mid-January 2026, protests were quelled under “virtual martial law,” but Iran floated nuclear concessions amid U.S. warnings and UN Security Council sessions.
This approach allows Iran to project diplomatic flexibility internationally while consolidating control domestically through violence, often buying time amid economic and geopolitical strains.
And Trump fell for it all. Even as I write, on February 7, 2026, the headline says “Iran and US to begin high-stakes talks amid fears of conflict”. The talks kick off in Oman…or as it should be in this context, Oh Man!
If he and I were talking over dinner, I’d press him to boldly go and punch both Russia and Iran on the nose … now. It is already a bit late … In Ukraine, arm their military to the teeth and set them onto the target. In Iran, join with Israel to decapitate the Islamic Republican Guard Corps and provide peacekeeping forces to protect Iranians in the streets.
Mr Trump, don’t be a chump!