Andrew L. Urban
Youngsters kicking a football in a suburban Tehran street or a small regional town may be the first to spot the fluttering of thousands of leaflets from the sky as Israeli jets fly by. Bombs will have stopped falling, missiles stopped shattering their targets, Iranian airspace will have become free of Islamic Republic planes … as they already have. Of course, this is my own hypothetical … for now, anyway.
I’m making this not-so-far-fetched hypothesis as the US/Israel strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran edges towards the prospect – or at least the hope – of a popular uprising, but faces colossal challenges with limited means of national communication since the dying regime closed down the internet, messaging apps (Telegram, Signal, WhatsApp, Viber), social media (Facebook, X/Twitter, YouTube, Snapchat, TikTok, Instagram), voice/VoIP services (Skype and others), app stores (Google Play, SMS messaging and satellite TV broadcasts).
But the determined and resourceful Iranian people have developed several alternative ways to communicate. These methods vary in reliability and risk, but they allow some information to continue flowing both within Iran and to the outside world.
For example: with satellite internet, such as Space X’s Starlink system which has been smuggled into Iran, a small satellite dish connects directly to satellites in low Earth orbit and the data goes straight to international internet gateways. This completely bypasses Iranian telecom controls. But it has limitations: the hardware must be smuggled into the country, satellite dishes can be detected by authorities and they are expensive relative to local incomes.
Then there is mesh networking which allows phones to connect directly to each other without the internet, using Blutooth or WiFi Direct.. but this is very short range, 50m – 200m between devices. As a mass communication tool these alternatives to internet and messaging apps are insufficient to mobilise millions across Iran.
As we know, information is power; it is reliable information that can trigger, drive and help coordinate a popular uprising in a country where the regime has all (or almost all) the weapons. In this internet-starved country, leaflets dropped by friendlies can provide low cost, low risk, high impact mass communication.
Smaller tactical aircraft (e.g., fighters) often use manual or simple box/ramp drops, limiting them to thousands (e.g., 5,000–20,000) per sortie due to payload constraints and the need for low/slow flight. Larger platforms like the C-130 Hercules (used by Israel for transport and sometimes PSYOP) can carry far more using dispensers or bulk drops. Multiple millions of leaflets (12 – 18 million) were routinely dropped in Vietnam era planning, and Iraq in 2003. Modern dispensers hold around 60,000 leaflets depending on size/weight.
In mid-1945, General Curtis LeMay, commander of the XXI Bomber Command, part of the Twentieth Air Force, ordered the dropping of leaflets hoping to reduce the needless killing of innocent people. One of the leaflets dropped on targeted Japan’s cities, with the text on the back, read: “… in accordance with America’s well-known humanitarian policies, the American Air Force, which does not wish to injure innocent people … America is not fighting the Japanese people but is fighting the military clique, which has enslaved the Japanese people. The peace, which America will bring, will free the people from the oppression of the Japanese military clique and mean the emergence of a new and better Japan. You can restore peace by demanding new and better leaders who will end the War.”
But in Epic Fury, the text would be adapted to advising Iranians what has happened to the regime and what is coming. The vital second and subsequent leaflet drops would mirror back to Iranians the news of any uprisings in different parts of Iran.
One of the most powerful impacts of a multi-million leaflet drop campaign would be the uniformity of information; all Iranians would know what all Iranians know, as it were. That knowledge provides assurance of unifying value and psychological strength.