Andrew L. Urban
As Trump and Putin spend over an hour on the phone today (Feb. 13 as I write) to talk potential peace, I wish I could have listened in. And interrupted …
Putin makes a big deal complaining about Ukraine’s hope to become a member of NATO, in his attempt to justify his invasion. That’s not a justification, it’s an excuse – and a weak one. Sad to see some people including President Donald Trump (and his Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth) falling for this furphy, to the point of it being cemented into the expected peace talks. But it’s a case of misdirection, a sleight of hand. It isn’t the actual point of contention: that is Putin’s expansionary ambitions, driven by the desire to ingest Ukraine.
Look at the map. Adjacent to Ukraine’s western border are Poland, Slovakia and Hungary – all NATO members. If Putin had occupied Ukraine, would he invade the next NATO countries on his doorstep? And then the next NATO members, Germany or Austria? And then the rest of western Europe?
To the north, Russia shares borders with Estonia and Finland. Also NATO members. Can we expect another Putin tantrum over these countries?
The whole point of the establishment and mission of NATO was and is to protect its member states from (primarily) Russian aggression. It was never to create an offensive alliance. Who had – and has – the track record of offensive (and illegal) invasions?
There is another argument to explain Putin’s invasion: that Putin is determined not to have a sovereign state next door which could provide military bases and/or missile launch sites for the western powers. This, too, is a furphy. As NATO members, those states were reluctant to even provide weapons to Ukraine to defend itself.
The sad reality seems to be that Putin will be rewarded for his illegal invasion in some way, probably territory and an undertaking by NATO to keep Ukraine’s membership a distant dream. So Ukraine loses that bit of protection, too. And that’s after Russia has ignored its commitment to protect and honour Ukraine’s sovereignty under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
As to what Russia loses…. Clearly many lives and much treasure, but also it’s international standing. Kidnapping Ukraine’s children and the barbarity of its soldiers on the Ukraine battlefield have stamped Russia as a primitive, amoral state not worthy of being a responsible member of the international community.
Forget the NATO furphy, the stark reality is that it is Russia that doesn’t deserve its permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
Andrew L. Urban is the co-author of ‘Zelensky the unlikely hero’ and ‘Volodymyr Zelensky the front line president’ (Wilkinson Publishing).