Andrew L. Urban
I have six large, decorative but functional candles at the ready. The lights going out are the least of my concerns in a power blackout. The common phrase in the greenewables to-and-fro is ‘to keep the lights on’; but it’s everything else that relies on electricity that will cause most alarm, harm and danger. Like life-sustaining equipment such as CPAP machines, nebulizers, dialysis units, or refrigerated medications (e.g., insulin). Oxygen concentrators fail, endangering respiratory patients.
Based on the latest assessments from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and other energy analyses, the probability of one or more power blackouts (including localized or widespread outages) occurring in Australian cities within the next two years is high—estimated at 70–90%
Key factors influencing blackout risks include grid reliability and transition issues. Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM), serving eastern states (NSW, VIC, QLD, SA, TAS), is undergoing a shift from coal (62% retiring by 2033) to renewables. This creates “reliability gaps” during peaks, where supply falls short of demand.
There are demand pressures, too, such as operational electricity consumption, which is forecast to rise 21% by 2034–35 (from 178 TWh in 2024–25), driven by electrification*, data centres, and heatwaves. Summer peaks (3–8 PM) strain the grid, especially with El Niño patterns reducing wind output.
*Electrification means replacing fossil fuel-based technologies with electric ones across homes, industries, and transport. It’s a core part of the transition to net-zero emissions and increasing electricity demand—which contributes to blackout risks during peak times. At home, for example, electric heat pumps, induction cooktops and solar hot water replacing gas. In industry, gas boilers and diesel machinery replaced by electric arc furnaces and heat pumps. And a single EV charging at home adds 7-22 kW, equivalent to running 5 – 15 air conditioners.
In NSW the closure of Eraring (Aug 2025) creates 191–510 MW gaps; Hunter gas plant delays add strain, leading to 50–70% chance of at least one major event.
In Victoria, demand growth and transmission delays will lead to breaches of the forecast but spill over earlier than 2028-2. There are 40–60% chances of a major blackout.
Elevators in apartments trap residents, especially those with mobility issues. Alarms, electric locks, and garage doors malfunction, increasing burglary risks adding to the vast inconvenience. Carbon monoxide detectors (battery-backed may last briefly) or smoke alarms fail if not hardwired properly. Gas appliances (if present) pose explosion risks if ignited without electric pilots.
Electric pumps in high-rise buildings stop, cutting off tap water. Sewage pumps fail, leading to toilet backups, hygiene issues, and contamination risks. Electric hot water systems cease to heat, complicating bathing/cooking.
Refrigerators and freezers fail, causing perishable food to spoil within 4–24 hours (fridge) or 24–48 hours (full freezer). This results in waste, potential foodborne illnesses from bacteria like Salmonella, and financial loss. Again, on top of the inconvenience.
Complete darkness indoors after sunset or in basements/windowless rooms (like some bathrooms) increases risks of trips, falls, and injuries, especially for elderly or children. Emergency lighting (e.g., phone flashlights) drains batteries quickly.
Loss of electric heating/cooling systems leads to rapid temperature extremes. In cold climates, pipes can freeze and burst; in Australian summers, heatstroke risks rise, particularly for vulnerable groups like infants or those with medical conditions relying on fans/AC.
Phones, internet routers, and TVs go down (unless on battery/UPS). Landlines may fail if VoIP-dependent. Isolation from news/emergency alerts heightens anxiety, threaten panic.
Businesses in cities face amplified scale, with economic losses in the millions per hour for large areas, plus safety hazards for employees/customers.
Point-of-sale systems crash, halting transactions (cash-only if prepared). Perishable inventory in supermarkets/restaurants spoils, leading to massive waste (e.g., a single supermarket can lose $50,000+ in stock).
Hotels lose bookings without elevators, AC, or lighting; evacuations may be needed.
Traffic lights fail, causing gridlock, accidents, and pedestrian dangers (urban intersection collision rates can spike 30–50%). Electric trains/trams stop; fuel pumps at stations require electricity, stranding vehicles. Airports ground flights if backup generators fail for critical systems.
Hospitals switch to generators, but these have limits (fuel lasts 24–72 hours typically). Non-critical systems like MRI/CT scanners shut down; patient monitoring, ventilation, and surgery lighting risk failure if backups overload. Medication fridges spoil vaccines/drugs.
Data centres lose cooling, risking server meltdowns and data loss (unless redundant). ATMs/banks go offline; stock trading halts. Office buildings become uninhabitable without HVAC, elevators, or water—productivity plummets, with work from home impossible sans internet.
Assembly lines stop, causing downtime costs. Hazardous processes (e.g., chemical mixing) may trigger unsafe shutdowns, leaks, or fires if controls fail.
Cell towers deplete batteries (2–8 hours typical), collapsing networks. Internet outages isolate businesses from suppliers/customers. Emergency services like 000 overload.
Streetlights blacked out increase risks of accidental falls and crime. Water treatment plants fail, risking contaminated supply. Wastewater overflows cause flooding/pollution. Prisons/hospitals may require manual lockdowns or evacuations.
Supply chains break (e.g., no fuel delivery without pumps). Insurance claims surge for spoilage/damage. In extreme cases (e.g., multi-day blackouts like Auckland 1998 or Texas 2021), GDP losses mount, with secondary effects like looting or civil unrest grow out of the cumulative impact of inconvenience and harm.
But hey, look on the bright side: we have the cheapest form of energy. Right?
Andrew L. Urban is the author of Climate Alarm Reality Check (Wilkinson Publishing).