The framework driving IPCC climate modelling has officially ditched the extreme scenarios as implausible, writes Roger Pielke jr in Climate Change Dispatch. The new framework has eliminated the most extreme scenarios that have dominated climate research over much of the past several decades — specifically, RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, and SSP3-7.0.
The international committee responsible for the official scenarios that feed into climate modelling, which are the basis for most projective climate research and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has just published the next generation of climate scenarios.
Tens of thousands of research papers have been — and continue to be — published using implausible scenarios and a similar number of media headlines have amplified their findings, and governments and international organizations have built these implausible scenarios into policy and regulation. We now know that all of this is built on a foundation of sand.
I don’t mind saying I told you so…see my 2022 book, Climate Alarm Reality Check (Wilkinson)
Roger Pielke Jr has called it “the most significant development in climate research in decades”.
No more hysteria, please.
Andrew : Nothing to do with climate change-BUT-have you noticed that one doesn’t often see diesel engined vehicles (buses) bellowing black smoke the way they quite commonly did in the past..Coal burning power stations can blow some nasty particles into the atmosphere and your lungs..ya got to be better of without that stuff in the air that you breath..! In the big city ones clean car will end up with a film of black gunk. Could be motor vehicle tyre rubber and brake dust- especially if one lives near busy city roads..The air in many large cities is cleaner today than 50 / 100 years ago..Lead in petrol- asbestos in brake linings etc. Nothing to do with climate change..just striving for clean air (and water). Good thing ?
modern (post 1980s) coal-fired power stations do not spew black smoke and visible particles into the air like older plants did. As you may know, modern coal plants use sophisticated pollution control technologies that capture the vast majority of particulates (soot, ash, etc.) before the exhaust leaves the smokestack. That is indeed a good thing.